Sierra Vista, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

485
FXUS65 KTWC 242112
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
212 PM MST Thu Apr 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry and warm with afternoon breeziness through the remainder of
the work week. Winds become breezy to windy this weekend while a
cooling trend arrives with a crossing weather system. Temperatures
are expected to warm above normal again by the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Southwest flow over the region will increase over the coming days
as a pressure gradient tightens downstream of a deepening eastern
Pacific trough. This trough will move onshore this weekend with a
mid-level jet ejecting out of the trough over southeastern
Arizona through Monday. A cool-down will arrive with this trough
as temperatures drop to near normal Sunday and Monday. As the
trough center and jet streak are positioned north of southeastern
Arizona, this will likely remain a dry system for the area.

Afternoon breeziness is expected Friday and Saturday as the upper
level trough approaches. On Sunday, a southwest to northeast
oriented jet will be atop southeastern Arizona with 30-40 knot
flow in the 700mb layer. The stronger portion of this flow will
likely be over areas of Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee
counties. The combination of increasing mid to lower level winds
and a tightening surface pressure gradient will bring breezy to
windy conditions across southeastern Arizona Sunday with windier
conditions more likely in those aforementioned southern and
eastern locations. With the lack of moisture arriving with this
system, dry conditions combined with the increased winds should
produce areas of near critical fire weather conditions on Saturday
and critical fire weather conditions in southern and eastern
locations on Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
areas with the windiest potential on Sunday. The magnitude of the
aforementioned jet should keep winds below advisory level, with
NBM/MOS in decent agreement with ranges of 15-25 mph near Tucson-
Nogales Sunday and 20 to near 30 mph in eastern areas towards the
New Mexico border. These eastern locations, especially through
southeastern Cochise county, may see wind gusts up to 45 mph
Sunday afternoon. With these winds Sunday afternoon some areas of
blowing dust are possible, especially near dust prone areas from
Willcox through the New Mexico border.

Looking into next week, Monday`s temperatures will remain near
normal in the wake of the exiting trough with lingering
breeziness. Thereafter, a warming trend is expected as ensemble
mean heights increase. There are some signs of a cyclonic ripple
under the building ridge mid-week, however predictability and
confidence in any details with this passing wave are low.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.

Light winds generally under 12 kts through this afternoon become
very light and terrain driven tonight. Passing FEW-SCT clouds AOA
20k feet will give way to clearing skies this evening. Southwest winds
are expected to increase late Friday morning through Friday
evening to 12-18 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An approaching weather system is expected to increase winds and
produce near critical to critical fire weather conditions through
this weekend. Near critical fire weather conditions Saturday
afternoon are possible in eastern areas such as Fire Weather Zone
152 and at exposed elevation. Then critical fire weather
conditions should develop Sunday as southwesterly winds increase
to 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in zones 151, 152, 153, and 154,
where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Though cooler
temperatures will arrive on Sunday with this system, moisture will
be lacking and minimum relative humidities should fall into the 6
to 10 percent range. Breezy conditions linger on Monday but should
remain below critical levels.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ151>154.

&&

$$

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

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