Sierra Vista, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

859
FXUS65 KTWC 030849
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
150 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Generally dry conditions with above normal temperatures
through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies this morning across southeast Arizona with
a broad ridge axis extending from New Mexico to Idaho with weak
troughing along the California coast. We`ll remain under
southwesterly flow aloft today as a broad/weak upper low moves
inland into California and then into Arizona Wednesday. Meanwhile,
an east push in the lower levels due to surface high pressure across
the southern Plains will result in an a few breezes today in the
normally susceptible locales such as the Gila River Valley. A little
bit more lower level moisture along the AZ/NM border may result in
some stratus clouds out that way today as well but should remain
dry. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures continue area-wide today
with a couple of degrees of cooling from Tucson westward and about 5
degrees of cooling east of Tucson.

The aforementioned weak upper low will remain over AZ for Wednesday
and Thursday, then nudge southward Friday. A bit of uncertainty in
the ensembles on how quickly it will finally eject east by Saturday
or linger a bit longer. Either way, this system won`t have much in
the way of impactful weather, given how weak it is and the limited
moisture availability. The best chance of a few rain showers/high
elevation snow showers will be across the White Mountains Wednesday
and Thursday with generally dry conditions elsewhere. Temperatures
will remain above normal for the remainder of the week.

A much more amplified trough is expected across the Great Basin and
Four Corners region early next week. There are some differences in
how amplified the trough is but at this time, most of the
precipitation chances are expected to remain to the north of our
area leaving us with a cooling trend in temperatures back down to
more seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 04/12Z. Mostly SKC early this morning. A
push of shallow moisture from the east may produce some SCT-BKN
stratus clouds at 3-6k ft AGL in the Upper Gila River Valley,
including the KSAD area, through about 03/19Z. Otherwise, SCT to
occasionally BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through the forecast period.
Surface winds east to southeast this morning at 7-12 kts. These
winds should increase further in areas exposed to southeasterly flow
through early this afternoon, especially at KSAD with sustained
winds up to 15 kts. KTUS should remain around 10 kts from the
southeast but may increase to 15 kts in the late morning. Winds then
become light by early evening through tonight. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to above normal temperatures continue
through the week. Breezy southeasterly winds today will also push a
modest moisture increase into Graham, Greenlee, and portions of
Cochise counties. These winds near and east of Tucson should be in
the 10 to near 20 mph range through the early afternoon hours.
Minimum relative humidity will be lowest today south and west of
Tucson in the 12 to 18 percent range, with 20 to 35 percent in
eastern zones. Minimum relative humidities will generally remain in
the 20 to 30 percent range through much of the week, with slightly
lower values west of Tucson. Winds Wednesday through this weekend
should be mostly light and terrain driven. The forecast this week
remains dry outside of a slight chance of a few rain and high
elevation snow showers in the White Mountains Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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