Sierra Vista, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

844
FXUS65 KTWC 040920
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
220 AM MST Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled conditions today and Saturday as a weather
system moves across the area. This system will bring scattered
light precipitation to the area. Next week a strong ridge of high
pressure will move into the area. This will bring a significant
warm-up in afternoon temperatures through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed clear to
partly cloudy conditions across SE AZ with 2 am radar indicating
mostly virga from Tucson NW. Last nights upper air plot and early
this morning water vapor imagery showed upper level trof over wrn
AZ. This trof will be moving across the area today into tonight
and combined with mid-level temperatures around -25C, scattered
mostly light showers will be developing. Rainfall amounts mostly
light, less than a tenth of an inch, but there could be a few
spots near a quarter of an inch. Can`t rule out some pea size hail
with stronger cells. Snow levels mostly above 5000 feet with any
accumulations above 7000 feet. Highs today will once again be
chilly running 12 to 18 degrees below normal.

Saturday: Upper level trof moves into NM with wrap around
moisture and slight chance of showers mostly east of Tucson.
However, there are some CAMs that have a slight chance of showers
as far west as Tucson. Highs, although warmer than today, remain
on the cool side.

Sunday: Warmer under dry northerly flow aloft with ridge axis to
our west.

Next week: Main story continues to be the significant warm-up
with highs in the 90s possibly touching triple-digits for a few
low desert areas late in the week. NBM probabilities for Tucson
hitting 100 degrees next Friday continues to yo-yo around with the
latest chances being 23%, down from the 40% for yesterday. The
earliest first triple-digit high date for Tucson is April 19
(1989).

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds between 6k-10k ft AGL is occurring or will be dvlpg
across the area through 05/00z. Except ISOLD -SHRA this morning to
be scattered in nature between 04/18z and 05/00z. Very isold MVFR
conds near -SHRA. SFC winds less than 10 kts bcmg NW 8-12 kts
after 04/17z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will slowly move across the state
through Saturday, bringing a chance of light precipitation tonight
into Friday with lingering shower chances far eastern areas on
Saturday. Thereafter, a strong ridge of high pressure will move
into the area bringing with it a significant warm-up in afternoon
temperatures begining this weekend and persisting through next
week. Daily SFC winds will see afternoon gustiness.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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